About Bryan Rich
Bryan Rich is an entrepreneur and an accomplished currency specialist with more than 17-years of experience in trading, research, and consulting in the global foreign exchange markets. He is President of Logic Fund Management, a currency advisory and consulting firm.
Bryan began his career as a trader for a $600 million family office hedge fund in London. The macro-oriented fund managed assets for a prominent European family. Later, he was a senior trader for a $750 million leading global macro hedge fund located in South Florida. There, he helped manage and trade a multi-billion dollar foreign exchange options portfolio.
His consulting resume includes work for a boutique currency fund in New York, where he developed trading models and strategy for the core investment program of the company. He later joined the company as a partner, based in their Wall Street office.
He has a BA from the University of North Florida and an MBA from Rollins College.
QUOTED MEDIA INTERVIEWS
PUBLISHED MARKET COMMENTARY
by Bryan Rich | Tuesday, April 28, 2015 at 7:30 PM
Over the past two years, in my Big Picture pieces, I?ve focused on a few distinct themes, all of which continue to hold today: Theme #1: The central banks are in control ? Be Long Stocks If you grasp this reality (Theme #1), and are firmly rooted in the context within which the global economy is operating, respecting the role that central banks played ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Thursday, January 15, 2015 at 2:00 PM
This morning the Swiss National Bank (SNB) surprised the world by abandoning its managed Swiss franc floor against the euro. The SNB said as recently as Monday that they remained committed to the 1.20 minimum EUR/CHF rate, a floor they have maintained for three years. They also announced a further reduction to an already negative deposit rate. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Tuesday, January 6, 2015 at 2:32 PM
A lot is being made of a potential exit of Greece from the euro. The risk, most would say, is destabilization in the euro zone, via contagion. After all, if Greece can leave, regain their sovereignty, return to their own currency and devalue away their over-hanging debt burden, then why wouldn?t Portugal and Ireland, or even Spain and Italy? This scenario was a huge risk in 2010, 2011 and 2012. But things are different now. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Tuesday, December 16, 2014 at 7:09 PM
In just three months, the Russian ruble has lost more than half of its value to the dollar. And this morning that slide has become even more severe. In an effort the stem the speculative selling in their currency, the Russian central bank hiked interest rates for the second time in less than a week overnight ? moving the key short term interest rate up to 17%. But it hasn?t worked. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, September 14, 2014 at 8:30 PM
As we headed into 2014, things were looking up. The U.S. economy was set up for the best growth we've seen since the onset of the global economic crisis (a return to trend growth). And the Fed was beginning to execute the plan to wind down QE, validating the recovery picture. Meanwhile, the BOJ was going the opposite direction, just early-to-midway through a massive stimulus program (QE and plans for game-changing reforms). [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, August 10, 2014 at 12:45 PM
This past week we've seen an escalation of geopolitical turmoil. As a result, stocks have fallen globally, and volatility has finally moved higher, off of very low levels. But events and news like this, historically, tend to create great buying opportunities. Because they are driven by fear, not fundamentals. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, July 20, 2014 at 2:00 PM
I haven't written my Big Picture piece in two months. Frankly, there has been a dearth of change in global markets. But finally, we may have a catalyst or trigger to get things moving. Despite the fertile opportunities for change in some areas where prices are disconnected from fundamentals, there has been little follow through. As a result, volatility has fallen back to pre-crisis levels in stocks, and to new record extreme lows ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, May 18, 2014 at 10:41 PM
In the past few weeks, we've had a big employment number from the U.S., continued speculation on how tensions in Ukraine might unwind, moves in Chinese currency that suggests China may be desperately looking to reinstate it's export advantage in the world, and two big central bank events which underpinned diverging paths for the world's two most powerful central banks (the Fed and the ECB). [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, April 2, 2014 at 12:00 PM
I have not written my Big Picture piece in a while. Frankly, there has been little new in the markets to get inspired about. As we step through this piece, though, I think you will find some very compelling developments in markets as we head into Q2. We have seen a lot of chop. We have seen a number of episodes for the fearful to satisfy their appetites for hand wringing. But in the end, we have gotten through Q1 with little change. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Friday, March 7, 2014 at 10:09 AM
This morning we got a positive surprise in the February payroll report. And unemployment ticked up. This provides a comforting backdrop for those that have been buying stocks, and its given a jolt to yields and USDJPY. Sluggish U.S. yields have weighed on the dollar for the better part of the past two months. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, February 10, 2014 at 8:18 PM
This past week was dominated by the slide in U.S. stocks. We have two significant events in the past month that has shaken confidence in markets: 1) the negative surprise in the December jobs report (i.e. a big negative surprise in the payroll number), and 2) the capital flight out of some emerging markets. The surprise in the December payroll data was, of course, attributed to bad weather. Weather kept .. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, January 27, 2014 at 3:56 AM
This past week, markets were shaken a bit by some smoke coming from emerging markets, namely Argentina. But the world's not too concerned about Argentina. The real threat comes from the potential spill over into Brazil, Russia, and most threatening, China. But if we look back at the Asian currency crisis in the summer of 1997, what started in Thailand and ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, January 20, 2014 at 1:28 AM
In the past week, we've had significant developments in currencies. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks traded back to record highs, and yields were relatively soft ? a perfect picture for the Fed. But yields have broken a 33-year downtrend. And while they aren?t going anywhere fast, they should at least be carving out a new range ? the bottom of which should be marked from this past week (more below). [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, December 16, 2013 at 3:29 AM
We have a couple of weeks remaining in the year. This week, we get the Fed?s final meeting for 2013, and the final post-meeting press conference for Bernanke. I expect they will start a campaign of scaling back their QE. They have given the markets plenty of lead time to digest the impact of tapering. They don?t want to be in the QE business anymore. They have found, as the ECB has taught them, that words can do the trick. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Thursday, November 14, 2013 at 8:16 PM
Today all eyes were on Janet Yellen's congressional confirmation hearing. But the real story took place overnight in Japan. First, despite all of the stories the media was grasping for this morning, Yellen gave them nothing new. Bottom line: The Fed will continue to do whatever is necessary to promote confidence, and with that, provide fuel for wealth creation via stocks and via a recovery in housing. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, November 6, 2013 at 12:00 PM
Over the course of the past two months, despite what the central banks have been telling us over and over again, people became convinced that the switch had been flipped, and not only were the extraordinary emergency policies that have been executed by the world?s leading central banks for the past five years about to end, but a tightening phase was imminent. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, October 14, 2013 at 3:00 PM
There has been a huge amount of attention in recent weeks on the posturing in Washington surrounding the debt ceiling. After more than six years through this crisis era, we can expect several things to play out every time U.S. debt is brought into the crosshairs: U.S. politicians will use every chance they have to posture in front of cameras, insulting our intelligence with scare scenarios, while speaking to the lowest ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Thursday, September 26, 2013 at 8:00 PM
Since the Fed?s decision last week to pass on scaling back its QE program, market participants have been trying to make sense of it all. With that, we?ve seen a wide array of interpretations of what it means, along with many attempts to explain why the Fed didn?t pull the trigger. People went into the Fed with strong convictions. People came out of the Fed without strong convictions (if any). When they lack conviction, they get nervous. And when they are nervous, they... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, September 9, 2013 at 3:07 AM
This past week, markets were focused on a slew of central bank decisions, a very important jobs report out of the U.S, and a G20 meeting where Syria was the highly anticipated topic of discussion. The week came and went, and we are left with a somewhat weak jobs report out of the U.S. to digest, and continued uncertainty surrounding an international response to Syria. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, August 21, 2013 at 8:00 PM
Despite the lack of any material new news in recent weeks, the word taper has continued to dominate the headlines. But I?m not sure why people are so fearful of the possibility that the Fed could scale down its third round of QE. Now, I could do a deep-dive into today's Fed minutes for you, but admittedly, all of this hyper-analysis of the nuances and details of a Fed tapering is a bit ridiculous. What is being lost on everyone is what the Fed attempts to accomplish by its QE program. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 2:36 PM
Too often Wall Street and the media create the perception that market themes are an impossibly fast moving target. From day to day, the journalists sit in front of a blinking cursor on their computers screens, with a deadline/deliverable to meet. The bank and brokerage salesman sit on conference calls with clients where they feel like they have to come up with a message that's new and important. I know it very well. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 5:00 PM
Today, amid high anticipation, the Fed released its most recent statement on monetary policy. For those that thought the Fed was on a course to give financial markets a self-induced shock, it didn't happen. Instead, the Fed reminded everyone that they care about prices, not just employment. They care that their favored measure for inflation is staring down the barrel of deflation -- still, after three rounds of QE (the believed antidote to deflation). [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, July 21, 2013 at 6:00 PM
I've said many times over the past weeks, months and even years, that financial markets in this environment are completetly driven by policymakers. The Fed and the ECB have given us clear guidance within this crisis era, that they will do anything and everything to prevent more shocks. They will spend money they have. They will promise money they don't have. They've set a precedent (albeit a dangerous one). [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Thursday, July 11, 2013 at 3:32 PM
About ten days ago, I wrote a piece titled ?The Fed Needs Us to Buy Stocks, Not Sell Them.? In it, I said that the Fed?s most recent monetary policy meeting, and Bernanke's subsequent press conference, were GOOD for stocks. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Friday, June 28, 2013 at 10:00 AM
The media does a very poor job of interpreting financial and economic data, and telling the story. In most part, they do a poor job because they have poorly aligned incentives. They need eyeballs to make money. As such, they continuously try to find ways to create ?shock value.? That can affect your psychology as an investor. And that can create a barrier to making money as an investor. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 5:00 PM
As I?ve said for the better part of the past six months, the policy shift in Japan is a game-changer. We finally have a policy response that could make a difference. It?s still very early, but the impact is already being felt. As I said in my note earlier this week, the question everyone should be asking themselves after the Fed meeting last week is NOT "when will the Fed taper?" [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, June 17, 2013 at 8:00 PM
In recent weeks, people have become panic-stricken about the possibility that the Fed could reduce the size of its current QE program or ?taper? it. This topic has become a dominant focus and created much fear and uncertainty for average traders and investors... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 8:01 PM
Early this year, I said that the backdrop for 2013 was looking very good for stocks, currencies, and for trading, in general. That has been the case. Our themes have been playing out beautifully, not just recently, but all year long ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, May 5, 2013 at 8:55 PM
This past week,stocks made new higher highs, global yields continued to slide and and the dollar was slightly stronger. Ten-year yields in Germany this past week got to just three basis points of the all-time record lows. U.S. yields were trading 1.6% and yields in Spain were trading at 4% (nearly half of where those yields were trading last July when Spain was a default threat). ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, April 22, 2013 at 9:47 PM
If your one of the loyal members of my FX Trader Professional services and/or a consistent reader of my weekly Big Picture piece, you know how important it is, especially in this environment, to have a solid perspective on the Big Picture. That said, in my Big Picture piece last week I focused on four key markets: Gold, the Euro, the Yen and the Aussie dollar... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 8:03 PM
This past week, stocks continue to charge higher (to new record highs in the S&P 500), the yen crosses dominated currency flows, and gold fell out of bed. Because gold is such a widely held asset and it?s the core of deeply emotional debates on things like the future value of the dollar, the future of fiat money and the threat of hyper-inflation, I?d like to start with a quick note on gold.... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, April 7, 2013 at 6:15 PM
Without question, the event of this past week was the BOJ. The BOJ?s ability to deliver on an aggressive plan to end deflation was highly questionable. But they did. They delivered. The ball is officially rolling in Japan, and it is a game changer, not just for Japan, but likely for the global economy and global financial markets. For perspective, let?s revisit how this decision by the BOJ this past week came to fruition ? [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, April 1, 2013 at 8:02 PM
Given the focus on Cyprus in the past two weeks, the ?imminent death of the euro? scenarios have resurfaced. But the broad market analysis does not confirm that speculation. If we scan the safe-haven bond markets (U.S. and German Treasuries), we find they are well-off-of the peak crisis lows, a time when global capital was pouring into these safe-havens in fear of a blow-up in Europe.... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, March 10, 2013 at 6:39 PM
For consistent readers of my Big Picture piece, you?ll know that I?ve been adamant about the favorable environment presented for stocks and the dollar in 2013. Despite, what I think have been clear signals, flashing time and time again, the broader trading/ investing community continues to be slow to accept a shifting market dynamic, even after new all-time highs in the Dow and across-the-board bullish trend breaks in the dollar. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, March 3, 2013 at 6:00 PM
We head into this week with a slew of key central meetings scheduled -- and considerable surprise risk. This past week, we finished with good follow through in the dollar. While the week opened with confusion surrounding the Italian elections, it wasn?t long before the broad underlying themes for markets was back to work. The themes: Growth-strapped Europe and a deflation fighting Japan. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, February 24, 2013 at 6:45 PM
In my Big Picture piece last week, we observed an environment that was setting up nicely for the dollar. Cable (GBPUSD) had broken a big four-year uptrend. The dollar index had broken out of a seven-month downtrend. And the all-important euro was on the path to confirming a similar trend change -- closing in on an area that would bring the euro bears back in droves. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Thursday, February 21, 2013 at 5:09 PM
This past week, we had a continuation of the sell-off in the euro, a big trend break in the pound, continued weakness in the yen and sustainably higher U.S. stocks and U.S. yields. With a weaker than expected GDP number in Germany, the focus is now shifting to the subject of growth in the euro zone. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, February 11, 2013 at 2:31 PM
n the past week, once again, the ECB?s Draghi proved to have a powerful influence on currencies. In a very subtle way, he indicated that the recent strength of the euro would be monitored. Enough said. The euro slid aggressively and, with his comments, the sharp seven-month euro rally is likely done. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, February 3, 2013 at 8:28 AM
In my piece last week, we looked at the bullish breaks across key global stock markets. We also made the case for rising global yields (an adjustment to a new, higher range). And across currencies, we walked through the supportive backdrop for a sustained rise in USDJPY -- and for the lagging USDCHF to follow the path of USDJPY. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, January 28, 2013 at 11:28 AM
In my piece last week, we looked at the bullish breaks across key global stock markets. We also made the case for rising global yields (an adjustment to a new, higher range). And across currencies, we walked through the supportive backdrop for a sustained rise in USDJPY -- and for the lagging USDCHF to follow the path of USDJPY. [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, January 21, 2013 at 6:59 PM
In my Big Picture piece last week, I noted that 2013 was setting up to be a good year for stocks and a good year for trading currencies. Out of the gate, this year, we?ve already seen the confirmation of a massive trend change in the yen. And after four years of near zero interest rates for the world, global yields appear to have bottomed, and are on the move higher. That creates potential for another major trend change in currencies ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, January 13, 2013 at 5:05 PM
Happy New Year! This is my first time publishing my Big Picture Weekly Chart Review since late last year. I?ve taken some time away from the markets and avoided some of the choppiness/ rhetoric-driven trading into the U.S. elections, end-of-year and fiscal cliff drama -- happily. ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, October 14, 2012 at 4:55 PM
The headlines in financial markets were dominated by more bad news this past week. Spain was downgraded. The IMF downgraded its growth expectations for the global economy. And global finance leaders at an IMF conference in Japan gave warnings on sovereign debt and the state of the global economy. Despite all of this negative news... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM
We head into next week with some huge events on tap. First, we get a speech from Bernanke on monetary policy on Monday. And then we get four central bank meetings: the RBA, BOE, ECB and BOJ. The consensus view is that all with hold the line, which makes things vulnerable for a surprise. The week will wrap up with the U.S. jobs report ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, September 23, 2012 at 9:15 PM
In my piece last week, we left off with markets sitting on big tech levels across the board. I showed my analysis on the S&P 500, which made the argument that QE has had diminishing returns overtime. Furthermore, my analysis of these intervention-induced rallies off of the 2009 lows showed that we may have already seen the extent of the QE3 rally... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, September 17, 2012 at 8:49 AM
We came into this past week with all eyes on two events: 1) the German constitutional court decision on the legality of the European bailout scheme (the European Stability Mechanism) ? and 2) the Fed. I said last week, that the German decision on the ESM would likely go through ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, September 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM
Going into Bernanke?s speech at Jackson Hole, we had key markets sitting on key levels. Stocks, gold, the dollar and U.S. 10 year yields were all at inflection points. And despite, the disppointment Bernanke delivered ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 1, 2012 at 3:29 PM
This past week, after an unusually quiet August, global financial markets were expected to erupt at Jackson Hole. This annual conference for global economic leaders, hosted by the Fed, was setting up to be a major catalyst. The consensus opinion going into it, was that Bernanke would take the opportunity to announce another major Fed intervention ? i.e. QE3. ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, August 26, 2012 at 2:15 PM
We came into this week, with the euro trading just above 1.23, continuing its methodical, but slowing, climb higher from the July lows. Beyond the behavior of the euro, in analyzing the bigger picture -- particularly looking at yields on Spanish, German and U.S. debt -- we could see a more ?pro-risk? outlook. In fact, in last week?s piece ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Sunday, August 19, 2012 at 1:45 PM
We came into this past week with the euro trading just below 1.23. And we finished the week just above 1.23. So it was another quiet week for the euro. But there were key developments in other areas of global markets, that indicate things could be looking up. In my analysis of the Big Picture last week, I said that it was sovereign debt yields that offered the best clues ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, October 5, 2011 at 11:00 AM
Just months ago, the U.S. was in the crosshairs of global scrutiny. The government was being criticized for its unsustainable debt load. Politicians were bashed for their handling of the debt ceiling and the Fed was being blamed for allegedly stoking global food prices, from what was being described as its ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, September 26, 2011 at 8:58 AM
While much of the current Wall Street and media focus is surrounding Greece and the problems in Europe, I'd like to focus on the fallout that's lining up beyond Europe ... i.e., what's next. First, in my view, the fundamental flaws in the European Monetary Union (EMU) that were exposed during ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Monday, September 19, 2011 at 8:00am
In this inaugural issue of Global Investor Weekly, I'd like to focus on the big picture. Stepping back and taking a big picture perspective on where we stand in this global economic environment can give clarity in a time of uncertainty ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 13, 2011 at 7:30am
When Standard & Poor's downgraded U.S. government debt last week, everyone was stirring about the prospects of a big sell-off in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries ? but it didn't happen. Instead, we witnessed a mass sell-off in nearly all other ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 6, 2011 at 7:30am
In late May, when the S&P 500 was trading just shy of its "post-crisis" highs, I made the case for why we should expect more pain ... a lot of it. And I said, with QE2 ending in June, QE3 may follow. Today, I revisit some of that big-picture analysis. In ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 30, 2011 at 7:30am
Without question, the sovereign debt crisis is in full swing ... It is unsustainable debt that is threatening to break up the 12-year-old European Monetary Union. And it is unsustainable debt that is threatening default and downgrade to the most ironclad credit in the world: The credit of the United States. Investors and the media [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 23, 2011 at 7:30am
This past week we've seen yet another bailout scheme from euro-zone officials. This one is perceived to be the magic bullet to solve all of the failing monetary union's problems. But I think we've seen this movie before ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 16, 2011 at 7:30am
It's easy to get confused by the daily deluge of information. For the past several weeks, the news on global economies and financial markets has been especially volatile ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 9, 2011 at 7:30am
In recent weeks the crisis in Europe has continued to dominate world markets. But behind the scenes China, the world's highly touted global growth savior, has been proving more and more fragile. China continues ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 2, 2011 at 7:30am
Just months ago, Wall Streeters and politicians were cheering that a recovery was well underway. Many forecasters were projecting 2011 to be a big year, with growth to be better than 5 percent ? the kind of ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 25, 2011 at 7:30am
Earlier this year, I wrote a Money and Markets piece titled "Social Unrest Setting the Stage for Sovereign Defaults." We had already seen overthrows in Tunisia and Egypt, Libya was underway and other Middle ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 18, 2011 at 7:30am
If you think the Greek debt crisis is the cause of Europe's major ills, think again. It's just a symptom of the far deeper problems I've been telling you about all alongAs I'll explain in this issue, the European Central Bank (ECB) is loaded ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 4, 2011 at 7:30am
Over the past several weeks it's become clear that the global economy is turning down ... *Japan returned to recession last month. So did Denmark. *Malaysia, Botswana, Ireland, Australia, Portugal and ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 28, 2011 at 7:30am
In the past four weeks, the dollar has surprised many people by staging a broad-based bounce. I wasn't among them. For more than two years, every time the dollar has turned down, there has been a ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 7:30am
Next month, the Fed will be winding down its second round of quantitative easing. But will it be for good? Back in August, at a meeting of global finance officials in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairman Bernanke ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 14, 2011 at 7:30am
In 2008, the failure of Lehman Brothers nearly collapsed the global financial system. To avert collapse, it required unprecedented global government bailouts, backstops and policy responses. These efforts ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 7, 2011 at 7:30am
It seems that the widely accepted view of global markets for many months has been conveniently compartmentalized, and neatly described as: "Fed's Easy Money Policies = Higher Asset Prices into ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 30, 2011 at 7:30am
Much has been made of the persistent slide in the dollar in recent months. Many proclaim it's the end of its status as the primary world reserve currency. Others suggest it's a notice of the demise of America ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 16, 2011 at 7:30am
Mark Twain once said, "If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed, if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed." That couldn't be truer in this crisis era. And for self-preservation, you're probably ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 9, 2011 at 7:30am
This past week we heard from a slew of key central banks on monetary policy. And when it was all said and done, we got important information on what to expect from the markets and economies going forward ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Wednesday, April 6, 2011 at 3:00pm
Currency market participants have been repositioning and our models are signaling to do the same. The drivers are several key fundamental influences ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 2, 2011 at 7:30am
The first quarter of 2011 has come to a close. And while it was good for the stock market, it wasn't good for the world. In fact it came with an unimaginable cocktail of economic shocks. First it was floods in ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 26, 2011 at 7:30am
Remember 2007 when the subprime mortgage crisis began to unravel? If you recall, the cracks in the real estate market were exposed. And the problems kept spreading. First it was small mortgage lenders that ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 19, 2011 at 7:30am
Japan's currency has gained nearly 40 percent against the dollar since the economic crisis erupted in the middle of 2007. And 8 percent of the yen's gains came during the past week despite the devastation from ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 12, 2011 at 7:30am
In the short term, market participants tend to have a very narrow focus when it comes to determining what information influences their decision making. And we're certainly seeing that now ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 5, 2011 at 7:30am
Last November, the Fed officially announced its plans for a second round of quantitative easing ? better known as QE2. This was a step most experts confidently professed would destroy the dollar. Despite ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 26, 2011 at 7:30am
Earlier this month, when tensions were just flaring up in Egypt, I wrote on February 5 a piece here in Money and Markets titled, "How Egypt's Civil Unrest Could Spread to Asia, and What It Means for Your Investments!" ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 19, 2011 at 7:30am
I've given plenty of arguments in my Money and Markets columns over the past couple of years as to why I think the pontifications about the dollar's demise are greatly exaggerated. The fact is, the dollar is ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 12, 2011 at 7:30am
There's been talk escalating this week in Washington about offering U.S.-based multinational companies a tax break to bring home their earnings from foreign subsidiaries. It's well known that the U.S. is sitting ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 5, 2011 at 7:30am
In recent weeks we've seen riots in Algeria, a coup in Tunisia and a massive public uprising in Egypt. The catalyst: The combination of skyrocketing food prices and high, persistent unemployment. But while most ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 29, 2011 at 7:30am
Standard & Poor's downgraded Japan's sovereign debt rating this week. It was the first cut in Japan's rating in nine years. Japan now joins Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain ? all of which have been downgraded in ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 7:30am
As China's economy has continued to put up stellar economic growth in the midst of one of the worst global economic crises on record, it's widely believed that China will lead the world out of its downturn and ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 15, 2011 at 7:30am
Last year Byron Wien, the former Morgan Stanley strategist, former billion-dollar hedge fund strategist, current Vice-Chairman of Blackstone and highly touted market prognosticator predicted 2010 would be ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 8, 2011 at 7:30am
As we start the New Year, the global investment climate looks remarkably similar to this time last year. The world is getting more bullish on the outlook for the U.S. Meanwhile, the unfolding sovereign debt ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 18, 2010 at 7:30am
For the better part of 2009 and for the second half of 2010, the world's focus has been on how dreadful things look in the U.S. and how great the opportunities are said to be everywhere else. But despite all ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 11, 2010 at 7:30am
The euro is doomed, and the consequences of its demise are far-reaching ? both in terms of the dangers for anyone who is unprepared and the opportunities for those who are. This is so important I have ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 27, 2010 at 7:30am
Last year's Thanksgiving weekend was an unusually active holiday news cycle. Of course, it was when Tiger Woods had his bizarre car accident outside of his home. That saga would dominate the news for ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 20, 2010 at 7:30am
The past three years have been dominated by government intervention ... The U.S. propped up the banks with TARP money, and then gave banks ultra-easy money terms to recapitalize. And to unfreeze ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 13, 2010 at 7:30am
Investors, politicians and the media have had tunnel vision for the better part of the past five months. And it's been directed squarely on the United States. The world has been transfixed on the dollar. Experts ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 6, 2010 at 7:30am
The currency market, as well as all markets, have been heavily focused on the U.S. and the Fed's plans for more quantitative easing (QE). And that's had a huge impact on the dollar and on dollar sentiment. The ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 30, 2010 at 7:30am
Last week, here in Money and Markets, I suggested that the recent G-20 finance minister meetings could have a meaningful influence on the next trend in global currencies and other key markets. Therefore, we ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 23, 2010 at 7:30am
While many investors have their eyes on the G-20 Summit in November, this weekend's gathering of G-20 finance ministers could prove to be the more significant event for markets. If you take a look at recent ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 7:30am
In recent weeks, the dollar has been the centerpiece of speculation surrounding the outlook for global economies, rising protectionist threats and the resurgence of global asset prices. And it all derives from ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 9, 2010 at 7:30am
When Brazil's finance minister said the world was in a currency war, it came as big news to many people ? a surprising "new" economic threat. But there's nothing new about a currency war. China has been ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 7:30am
Since the Fed's most recent meeting, everyone seems to have an opinion about another round of extraordinary monetary stimulus and the economic and market reactions such a move could leave in ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 7:30am
Last week, I pointed to the challenges facing Switzerland and Japan's currencies. As for the yen, I said that nothing short of actual intervention would relieve the pressure on its exporters. I also said that I ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 11, 2010 at 7:30am
Currencies play an important role in the economic health of a country ? impacting the flow of trade and capital. For instance, a weak currency can be quite good for an economy in times of recession. It ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 4, 2010 at 7:30am
This week, the U.S. Commerce Department gave China another pass on its currency manipulation, ruling against charges it was undercutting U.S. aluminum makers. This puts China's currency back on the radar ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 28, 2010 at 7:30am
With bond yields and stock markets in the world's major developed economies petering away, more people are asking: Where can we find investment returns? Wall Street's answer: Emerging markets. The ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 21, 2010 at 7:30am
It's no secret the economic data in the U.S. and other major economies have rolled over. That's why bond yields have taken another nose dive ? hitting record lows in Germany and nearing record lows in the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:30am
The Fed surprised many people this week when it announced it would respond to the deteriorating economy with more efforts to stimulate. It was a splash of cold water on the face of the world, a wake-up call ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 7, 2010 at 7:30am
As major global economies are beginning to feel the threat of another bout with recession, Japan is dealing with an extra challenge: An unwelcomed strong currency. Weak structural economic fundamentals ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 31, 2010 at 7:30am
I normally talk only about currencies in my Money and Markets columns. But today I want to make an exception and address some commonly held misconceptions many investors have about their ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 24, 2010 at 7:30am
It's earnings season. And more and more companies are talking about currencies. The headlines read like this ... "Weak Euro a Drain on S&P 500 Revenues" "Currency Fluctuations Wipe $500 Million off IBM ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 17, 2010 at 7:30am
Currencies have experienced a massive wave of volatility in the past three years. Driving some of that volatility are the early stages of a sovereign debt and currency crisis. As I laid out in my June 26 ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 10, 2010 at 7:30am
Over the past month, the talk from European officials about the sovereign debt crisis has gone relatively quiet. Meanwhile, the euro has bounced aggressively from 1.1877 to over 1.27 versus the dollar. It's ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 3, 2010 at 7:30am
In the past two weeks, we've seen China de-peg its currency from the dollar, the UK roll out historical fiscal austerity measures and Japan release details on a plan to tackle its massive debt load. The knee-jerk ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 26, 2010 at 7:30am
Last week, I laid out some important historical context for establishing a solid perspective on the big picture ? a broad view of where the global economy stands and what we should expect going forward ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 19, 2010 at 7:30am
It's easy to lose perspective on where the global economy stands ... to be confused by the daily deluge of information. So today, in the first of a two-part series, I want to give you some perspective on the big-picture and where we are today ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 7:30am
The dollar index has surged 20 percent since last November. And this week, it was sniffing around its 2009 high! That's pretty impressive, especially given that the 2009 high was driven by an across the board ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 5, 2010 at 7:30am
Currencies represent the truest reflection of economic fundamentals and market sentiment. Therefore, they continue to be an important segment of the financial markets to watch. Since the "flash crash" in the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 29, 2010 at 7:30am
Tim Geithner, Hillary Clinton and 200 other American bigwigs visited China this week. First on the agenda: China's position on the rising tensions between North and South Korea. With the rest of the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 22, 2010 at 7:30am
The run-up in the stock market from March 2009 until last month was sharp and rewarding ... for some. But there was one problem, it came with disproportional risk. You see, the stock market rose to an extent ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 15, 2010 at 7:30am
Over the course of this year in my Money and Markets columns I've presented some compelling reasons why the euro zone and the euro were in for a life threatening crisis. And despite the general consensus ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 8, 2010 at 7:30am
The euro is in devaluation mode ... in a sharp 17 percent decline against the dollar over the past five months. And I've written extensively on why, and why it still has further to go. Now I believe a covert ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 1, 2010 at 7:30am
Boy, what a week! I've been warning about a troubled euro and a building sovereign debt crisis for some time. And the bond and currency market activities this past week are a clear example that the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 24, 2010 at 7:30am
If you're looking for clues on where stocks, commodities and global economies are headed, you might be better served keeping a close eye on the euro, rather than on the incoming stream of corporate ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 17, 2010 at 7:30am
The economic problems in Greece have made front page news for the better part of the past three months. And I've written several columns here in Money and Markets on the ongoing drama and its influence ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 10, 2010 at 7:30am
It's been two weeks since the bailout speculation surrounding the Achilles' heel of the euro zone, Greece, has had some closure. European officials kept the balls in the air as long as they could in an attempt ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 3, 2010 at 7:30am
In sports, if the opposition is on a roll and the momentum is squarely against you ... you need a "time-out." This interruption in action can break the rhythm of the opposing team and give your team a moment ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 20, 2010 at 7:30am
There are two major issues facing global currencies in the months ahead. And both have escalated in the past week. Issue #1: The Greek Drama. Act I: Sovereign debt fears. In the first act of the euro-zone ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 13, 2010 at 7:30am
Since last November, the dollar has climbed steadily against a basket of currencies ? most notably against the euro. And based on my analysis, I think it's just the early stages of this trend. In fact, for many ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 6, 2010 at 7:30am
In my December 26 Money and Markets column I focused on the outlook for 2010, and the looming threats to global risk appetite. I warned that sovereign debt problems posed a major threat to global ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 27, 2010 at 7:30am
Toward the end of last year, many market followers were speculating on a Fed hike as early as the first half of 2010. Global stock markets had experienced explosive bounces, commodity prices had surged from the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 20, 2010 at 7:30am
At the beginning of this year, I wrote a Money and Markets column entitled "Will the Euro Become the Most Hated Currency for 2010?" At that time, the euro/dollar exchange rate was about 5 percent off of its ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 13, 2010 at 7:30am
Over the past months I've written extensively in my Money and Markets columns about the bubbling over of the risk trade. I also warned about the rising threats that would likely make a sustainable recovery ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, February 6, 2010 at 7:30am
The debt problems in Dubai threw a wrench in the happy-go-lucky risk trade of last year. And since then, the perception of the state of the global economy has been unraveling. All of the sudden, the world ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 30, 2010 at 7:30am
The Fed met this week on monetary policy. It was a bit of a snoozer. What wasn't a snoozer, however, was what they've included in their recent monetary policy statements regarding currencies ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 7:30am
In December I wrote a Money and Markets column making the case for a bottom in the dollar. And since then the evidence supporting that thesis has grown. I also said there are plenty of ugly currencies ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 16, 2010 at 7:30am
Pair trading is a popular stock-trading strategy. It gives you the opportunity to capture a dislocation between two stocks by taking a long position in one stock and simultaneously taking a short ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 9, 2010 at 7:30am
The UK economy is in a tough spot ... it's the only major economy that has yet to emerge from recession. It's running the largest budget deficit of any industrialized country. And its central bank has ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 7:30am
For the better part of 2009 the U.S. dollar was the world's most hated currency. But it's looking increasingly likely the tables could turn in 2010. And the euro could take over that unenviable title ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 26, 2009 at 7:30am
With 2009 coming to a close, I'd like to take a look back at the role that the big-picture environment has played in determining how currencies ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 7:30am
For much of 2009, the dollar has been the Tiger Woods of global currencies. There has been a relentless snowball of negative sentiment ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 12, 2009 at 7:30am
The most recent employment data in the U.S. came in significantly better than what was expected. And the financial markets reacted in a different way this time. Interest rates went screaming ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 7:30am
The Japanese yen has been the best performing currency over the past two-and-a-half years. Since the unraveling of the subprime mortgage market and the subsequent peak in the carry trade, the yen has ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 7:30am
In last week's Money and Markets column, I analyzed the three major liquid currencies as prospective alternatives to the U.S. dollar: The Japanese yen, the British pound and the euro ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 21, 2009 at 7:30am
The dollar has suffered a landslide of scrutiny and negative sentiment over the past eight months. Yet just nine months ago it was the currency that every investor and central banker in the world wanted ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 14, 2009 at 7:30am
I've written several times here in Money and Markets about the geopolitical time bomb surrounding China's currency manipulation. The most recent was in my October 31 column. I expect this issue to ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 7:30am
A lot of focus was given to the central banks' meetings this week. That's because a lot of people would really like to see target rates start moving up from their low levels. Some argue for higher rates because ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 7:30am
When the leaders from the 20 most powerful countries in the world (including China) met last month, they left with a pledge to work toward rebalancing global economies. That means countries running large ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 17, 2009 at 7:30am
If you consider all of the structural problems in the U.S. economy, there has not been a lot of progress toward getting things back on track. The root causes of what created the near debilitating ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 10, 2009 at 7:30am
In the summer of 2007, Bear Stearns confessed it had spent $3.2 billion bailing out two of its funds that were exposed to the sub-prime market. At the same time, the yen carry trade ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, October 3, 2009 at 7:30am
The G-7 meets this weekend in Istanbul. So what's on the minds of these leaders of the top industrialized countries of the world? They're all worried about currencies. Specifically ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 7:30am
I normally talk only about currencies here in my Money and Markets column. But today I want to address some commonly held misconceptions many investors have about how their ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 7:30am
In the most global-reaching recession since the Great Depression, protectionism is a poison pill for recovery. And we got a taste of it this week ... The Chinese supply about 19 percent of ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 12, 2009 at 7:30am
Many governments are warning about the risks that may undermine economic recovery. And a lot of that concern is surrounding the value of their currency. Since March, most currencies ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, September 5, 2009 at 7:30am
In the past month we've seen statistics that indicate the recession for major economies will be ending this year. And in some countries, like Germany, France and Japan, their ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 29, 2009 at 7:30am
If you've followed my commentary on currencies here in Money and Markets, you are well aware of the risk dynamic that has been driving currencies and other financial markets since the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 22, 2009 at 7:30am
When the U.S. sneezed, Canada ? like the rest of the world ? caught its cold. And the currency of this key U.S. trading partner has since become a victim of the ebb and flow of global ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 15, 2009 at 7:30am
Last week the U.S. reported better-than-expected employment data. And the markets liked it. Stocks rallied. Yields advanced. And the dollar actually moved higher. A move higher in ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 8, 2009 at 7:30am
According to the financial markets, the world has become a very calm and comfortable place again. But has it? Just a year ago markets were crashing all around us ... The U.S. housing ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, August 1, 2009 at 7:30am
Currency values are highly influenced by interest rates ... a key driver in determining the flow of global capital. For example, if you lived in Japan for the past decade, you would have ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 25, 2009 at 7:30am
It's earnings season. And more and more companies are talking about currencies. The headlines read like this ... "Alliance Data 2Q Profit Down 37 Percent, Hurt By Currency Headwinds" ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 18, 2009 at 7:30am
China's the largest country in the world by population, the third-largest economy and the third-largest exporter. It's also the owner of over $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves. And in the ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, July 11, 2009 at 7:30am
The financial markets have been highly inter-related since the current crisis unleashed fear and uncertainty starting in late 2007. And investors around the world went running for the doors ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 27, 2009 at 7:30am
If you were to travel outside of your home country and encountered a McDonald's, would you pay more or less for a Big Mac? Well that depends ... You would likely notice a difference though ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 20, 2009 at 7:30am
The dollar has been publicly attacked on many fronts over the past three months. And endless accusations have been made that the U.S. is purposely trying to devalue the dollar to lessen ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 13, 2009 at 7:30am
The dollar can't manage to find its way out of the limelight these days. There's speculation about its demise and the loss of its world reserve currency status. It's even blamed for higher gas ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 7:30am
When financial markets were on the way down, risk aversion reigned and every investment that was deemed risky crashed. The U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasuries did well as global investors ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 30, 2009 at 7:30am
The U.S. Treasury market has become the focal point of financial markets for the past several trading days. And when Treasuries move, so does the dollar. Market participants are looking ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 23, 2009 at 7:30am
Many investors are concerned about the future path of the dollar ... and with good reason. The Treasury is increasing the money supply in amounts never seen before or even imagined ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 16, 2009 at 7:30am
Germany is the world's largest exporter. And in the broadest global recession on record, demand for its exports has come to a virtual standstill. As a result, Germany, the core of the Eurozone ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 9, 2009 at 7:30am
In times of stress you can't rely on normal conditions to hold. In fact, reactions to stress can be quite the opposite ... completely unpredictable. It's no different in financial markets ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, May 2, 2009 at 7:30am
It's important to understand the global investment and economic environment to understand what's going on with currencies. And right now, there's limited visibility of what lies ahead ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 25, 2009 at 7:30am
The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it's projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That's four times the amount projected in ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 18, 2009 at 7:30am
This week there was plenty of data to digest from the financial markets and the overwhelming theme was ? more of the same. If you missed it, here's a run-down ... Global deflation, lifeless ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 11, 2009 at 7:30am
It's not hard to understand the relationship of the dollar with human emotions like greed and fear. And that relationship is rarely more visible than it is today ... When investors are willing to take on ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, April 4, 2009 at 7:30am
For the past eight years, the carry trade ? where investors borrow money from a country with low interest rates and invest it in places that provide higher returns ? became extremely popular ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 21, 2009 at 7:30am
China's currency policy is pretty far down the list of priorities for the U.S. Treasury staff. But it could be the turning point in this economic crisis ? and for the worse. Pressures on China to join ... [More ?]
by Bryan Rich | Saturday, March 7, 2009 at 7:30am
The biggest victim of the global housing and credit bubble may be the euro ? the single currency of 16 European nations. Having just celebrated its 10th birthday in a free-fall, the euro is being ... [More ?]
